|Rice field in Bangladesh|
This could be one of the most severe social and economic effects of climate change.
Rice Yields Hurt By WarmingResearchers from the University of California, Duke, National Bureau of Economic Research, IRRI and FAO published a very revealing paper in PNAS. They studied 227 intensively managed irrigated rice farms in six important rice-producing countries over several years. Their findings "imply a net negative impact on yield from moderate warming in coming decades. Beyond that, the impact would likely become more negative, because prior research indicates that the impact of maximum temperature becomes negative at higher levels." Rising temperatures, especially nighttime temperatures, will hurt rice yields.
The paper is behind a pay wall, but there is a good BBC News article on their results. It says they "found that over the last 25 years, the growth in yields has fallen by 10-20% in some locations, as night-time temperatures have risen. ... Although yields have risen as farming methods improved, the rate of growth has slowed as nights have grown warmer." And "if temperatures continue to rise as computer models of climate project, Mr Welch says hotter days will eventually begin to bring yields down."
The question is whether rice improvement efforts (plant breeding) can get ahead of the negative effects of rising temperatures.
This EurekAlert release summarizes the results.
Net Plant Primary Production DownResearchers at the University of Montana studied terrestrial net primary production. Net primary production (NPP) is the total net fixation of carbon by photosynthesis in an ecosystem. They found that "Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere."
These results were surprising since earlier studies had shown increasing plant carbon capture with rising temperatures in the 80s and 90s. However temperatures since 2000 have been the highest in modern records and accompanying droughts have apparently cut into global plant growth.
Again the Science article is not open access, but this EurekAlert release has some more information on the results and their implications.
While longer growing seasons and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels may favor more carbon fixation in some northerly regions, more of the globe is water-limited and more drought could hurt total carbon fixation more than warming trends would boost it. As the authors say in their abstract, "A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production."
Plankton Declining With Warming Seas
Researchers from Dalhousie University studied the concentrations of phytoplankton in the oceans. Writing in Nature report "declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of ~1% of the global median per year". "We conclude that global phytoplankton concentration has declined over the past century" and "long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures." Since phytoplankton, minute plants, "account for approximately half the production of organic matter on Earth" this could be bad news.
The story quotes study co-author Boris Worm: "I think that if this study holds up, it will be one of the biggest biological changes in recent times simply because of its scale. The ocean is two-thirds of the earth’s surface area, and because of the depth dimension it is probably 80 to 90 percent of the biosphere. Even the deep sea depends on phytoplankton production that rains down. On land, by contrast, there is only a very thin layer of production."
Here is an excellent release in Science Daily summarizing the report.
Yield Reductions in China?A review paper in Nature by Shilong Piao et al. assesses "the impacts of historical and future climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. They find that in spite of clear trends in climate (especially temperature), overall impacts are overshadowed by natural variability and uncertainties in crop responses and projected climate, especially precipitation. In a best-case scenario, crop production is constant, whereas the worst-case scenario suggests that production could fall by about 20% by 2050." (From Editor's Summary.)
A Reuters article quotes further from the paper, "Countrywide, a 4.5 percent reduction in wheat yields is attributed to rising temperatures over the period 1979-2000," and says "They forecast that rice yields would decrease by 4 to 14 percent, wheat by 2 to 20 percent and maize by zero to 23 percent by the middle of the 21st century."
(Grist carries an AFP story about this research.)
What Does It Mean?These results from several unrelated fields of research suggest that we should be concerned that continued warming will negatively affect both wild plants (which act as a carbon dioxide sink) and agriculture (fundamental to social stability).
If forests, grasslands, phytoplankton in the sea and other ecosystems absorb less of the CO2 we release by unrestrained burning of fossil fuels, then atmospheric CO2 levels may rise faster than models currently predict.
If higher temperatures and drought reduce agricultural output more land will have to be brought under the plow. Such land-use changes usually release significant additional carbon dioxide.
We should significantly increase spending on agronomy and plant breeding, especially in Africa, India and East Asia, if we want to maintain the yields we have.